By Brad Armendt (auth.), William L. Harper, Brian Skyrms (eds.)
The papers accrued listed here are, with 3 exceptions, these provided at a convention on likelihood and causation held on the college of California at Irvine on July 15-19, 1985. The exceptions are that David Freedman and Abner Shimony weren't in a position to give a contribution the papers that they awarded to this quantity, and that Clark Glymour who used to be unable to wait the convention did give a contribution a paper. we wish to thank the nationwide technology starting place and the college of Humanities of the college of California at Irvine for beneficiant aid. WILLIAM HARPER collage of Western Ontario BRIAN SKYRMS college of California at Irvine Vll creation half I: judgements AND video games Causal notions have lately corne to determine prominently in discussions approximately rational choice making. certainly, a comparatively influential new method of theorizing approximately rational selection has grow to be referred to as "causal choice theory". 1 selection difficulties akin to Newcombe's challenge and a few models of the Prisoner's issue the place an act counts as facts for a wanted nation even if the agent understands his selection of that act can't causally impact even if the kingdom obtains have encouraged causal determination theorists.
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Extra info for Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics: Proceedings of the Irvine Conference on Probability and Causation
Now one of the background assumptions is that the state in which this all happens has very strict penalties for anyone found guilty of colluding to interfere with a will. The penalty is loss of a hand together with banishment. We can represent the game theoretic reasoning that is critical to this story by the following extensive form game. Player b represents Gianni Schicchi. His pure options are either C to cooperate with the relatives or D to defect by naming himself as heneficiary. He gets to move first.
An important point made there is the following: A preference P,Q is the agent's preference for P, under the supposition that Q holds. And the supposition that Q is one in which the agent's beliefs about the causal structure of the world are minimally altered (unless explicitly cancelled by Q). The supposition that Q is not a supposition that Q occurs no matter what the agent docs, for example (though the agent might make such a supposition; the point here is that it is a different supposition from simply supposing that Q).
Suppose the relatives consider the possibility of Schicchi's duplicity and make available to themselves a new strategy A which would be implemented by instructing a confederate ahead of time to blow the whistle on Schicchi (and thus on the relatives as well) if Schicchi defects. The new strategy B is to not set up the whistle blower.